A, O, Way to Go, New Mexico

I keep hearing that Ohio in 2008 could be Florida in 2000. I think it is as likely that New Mexico will produce such a post-election fight.

Nevada and New Mexico each may be as important as Ohio in November. This is based on a few very simple assumptions in comparison to 2004:

1. Obama will not be able to win any states that voted for Bush except for Colorado and Iowa. That means no wins for Obama in OH, VA, NC, GA, Omaha, etc.


2. McCain will not be able to win any states that voted for Kerry except New Hampshire, which loves him so much it revived his moribund primary campaign. That means no win for McCain in Michigan, which I think will come home to the Democrats now that the delegate situation is resolved. The first poll taken after Clinton's withdrawal gives Obama a 3 point edge.


3. In the event of an Electoral College tie, there will be no faithless electors and Obama will win in the House of Representatives.

Using the interactive map at 270toWin.com, those assumptions leave me with a 264-264 tie in the Electoral College before counting Nevada and New Mexico. Nevada and New Mexico each have the five Electoral College votes Obama would need to throw the election to the House.

Obama could lose Ohio but win the election if he simply holds his current leads in Colorado and Iowa and then takes either New Mexico or Nevada. New Mexico is more favorable to Obama than Nevada and therefore offers the better pick-up opportunity of the two states.

New Mexico has been a true swing state. It was won by less than 1% of the popular vote by different parties in 2000 (for Gore) and 2004 (for Bush). Given the close history, and New Mexico's notoriously slow certification of election results, and allegations of serious counting problems in 2004, New Mexico sets up to be the focus of a nasty fight lasting beyond election day.

I cringe watching Bill Richardson sometimes, but maybe he isn't such a bad choice for VP.

Swing States

What are the swing states? FiveThirtyEight.com currrently gives Obama or McCain a 34%-66% probability of winning in the following states:

New Hampshire (McCain 55%)

Virginia (McCain 64%)

Missouri (McCain 65%)

Ohio (50%)

Michigan (50%)

Colorado (Obama 66%)

New Mexico (Obama 63%)

Nevada (50%)

Note that Pennsylvania didn't make the list with a 68% chance for Obama. I also generally don't consider Pennsylvania a swing state because Obama has larger problems if he can't win there.

I think Michigan will be close but blue. The African-American population there is large enough to help Obama at 17%, but still in the Sirota Race Chasm. And the dispute over the primary may have hurt Obama. But the economy is in the crapper, and McCain isn't going to offer much help. Michigan was once reliably Republican, and barely went for Kerry 51-48 in 2004, but hasn't gone to the Republicans since the Electoral College landslide of 1988. Current polling is skewed in part by the fact that Obama didn't campaign there in the primaries.

If Obama wins Virginia or Missouri, the election probably wasn't close enough for those to be the deciders. Choosing Webb from VA, Kaine from VA, or McCaskill from MO as VP could potentially help him in either of those states.

Colorado seems to be fairly well in Obama's column at this point. Not to mention his nominating convention will be in Denver. I have no reason to believe he'll lose that state.

That leaves New Hampshire, Ohio, New Mexico, and Nevada, and an interesting scenario for my next post.