Who Benefits from a Consensus for Withdrawal?

Michael Crowley says McCain because it allows him to shift the debate from his unpopular advocacy of a long-term stay to who will be better at wrapping up.

Polling shows that McCain is basically even with Obama on Iraq. On other foreign policy issues, McCain leads by a wide margin. On practically every other issue, such as economic policy, Obama leads. Therefore, Iraq is a drag on McCain's only strength. If McCain can get Iraq out of the way, he has a cleaner shot at Obama on foreign policy.

538 Update

538 Update

Also, LA Times / Bloomberg gives Obama a 15 point national lead (12 if you exclude Barr and Nader).

You Might Remember Him From Such Films As...

I know it's not political but it's pretty funny.

The Quiz - Troy McClure or Actual Bad Movie

I got 12 out of 15 right.

Tied in Georgia

Insider Advantage / PollPosition

McCain: 44%

Obama: 43%

Barr: 6%

Undecided: 7%

McCain previously led in the same poll by 10 points (AJC).

538

FiveThirtyEight.com provides an interesting snapshot of the Electoral College. The site weights the publicly available polls and runs 10000 simulations for each prediction.

The site's creator is Nate Silver, an amateur in politics who works for the respected statistics-based sports media company Baseball Prospectus.

Right now, 538 has Obama leading in the simulations with an average electoral vote count of 274.4 to McCain's 263.6.

Is America sick of government?

These two polls showing the approval ratings of both President Bush and Congress at all time lows hopefully show that those who cling to government for help and protection, either Republicans or Democrats, will find other things that actually work when tried. Guns and religion perhaps?

Note: I also think it's interesting that Congress has a lower approval rating than the President.