Supreme Court Appointments

I think it is possible that, given that liberals on the Supreme Court are more likely to retire in the next 4-8 years than conservatives, a vote for Obama is a vote for the status quo, while a vote for McCain is a vote for a much more conservative court. Washington Post:

A victory by the presumptive Democratic nominee, Barack Obama, would probably mean preserving the uneasy but roughly balanced status quo, since the justices who are considered most likely to retire are liberal. A win for his Republican counterpart, John McCain, could mean a fundamental shift to a consistently conservative majority ready to take on past court rulings on abortion rights, affirmative action and other issues important to the right.

This is because the conservatives (Scalia, Thomas, Roberts, Alito) are relatively young and show no intention of retiring. The liberals (Souter, Breyer, Ginsberg, Stevens) and swing vote (Kennedy) are more advanced in age.

I do see a few sets of circumstances that could alter this course. Of course, all of the Justices are over 50 years old, so anything can happen. Also, a reliable conservative may retire during the McCain presidency in the hopes of being replaced by a conservative, only to be replaced by a Stevens or a Souter. That possibility is made more likely by the third potential intervening circumstances - a Democratic Senate.

However, if Obama can convince voters that Roe v. Wade is in real jeopardy and make McCain's interest in overturning Roe v. Wade an issue in the campaign, Obama stands to benefit tremendously.