Swing States

What are the swing states? FiveThirtyEight.com currrently gives Obama or McCain a 34%-66% probability of winning in the following states:

New Hampshire (McCain 55%)

Virginia (McCain 64%)

Missouri (McCain 65%)

Ohio (50%)

Michigan (50%)

Colorado (Obama 66%)

New Mexico (Obama 63%)

Nevada (50%)

Note that Pennsylvania didn't make the list with a 68% chance for Obama. I also generally don't consider Pennsylvania a swing state because Obama has larger problems if he can't win there.

I think Michigan will be close but blue. The African-American population there is large enough to help Obama at 17%, but still in the Sirota Race Chasm. And the dispute over the primary may have hurt Obama. But the economy is in the crapper, and McCain isn't going to offer much help. Michigan was once reliably Republican, and barely went for Kerry 51-48 in 2004, but hasn't gone to the Republicans since the Electoral College landslide of 1988. Current polling is skewed in part by the fact that Obama didn't campaign there in the primaries.

If Obama wins Virginia or Missouri, the election probably wasn't close enough for those to be the deciders. Choosing Webb from VA, Kaine from VA, or McCaskill from MO as VP could potentially help him in either of those states.

Colorado seems to be fairly well in Obama's column at this point. Not to mention his nominating convention will be in Denver. I have no reason to believe he'll lose that state.

That leaves New Hampshire, Ohio, New Mexico, and Nevada, and an interesting scenario for my next post.